Canada qq GDP annualized
- Q1 was +3.1% (revised to +2.6%)
- Q/Q not annualized 0.0% vs +0.8% prior (revised to +0.6%)
- GDP + vs +2.21% y/y in Q1
- Implicit price +0.7% q/q vs +0.2% prior
- Exports +0.1% vs +2.4% prior
- Imports +0.5% vs +0.2% prior
- Household spending on goods +0.1% vs +1.5% prior
- On services 0.0% vs +1.3% prior (revised to +1.1%)
- June monthly GDP -0.2% vs -0.2% expected
- July advance GDP 0.0%
This is a big downgrade for Canadian growth and raises the possibility of a recession before year end. I’ve long argued that the last Bank of Canada rate hike was foolish and and this point it would be shocking if the BOC hiked again next week.
June GDP was dragged down by forest fire shutdowns in mines and rail but the lack of a bounce in July is worrisome and fits with what retailers have been saying.