Here is a good thread from Bob Elliott highlighting that spending trackers from Morgan Stanley, JPM, and Citi all show recent weakening.
Here’s what Citi had to say:
Our Citi Card Data showed Hardlines Retail spending declined -12.2% y/y in August, which was worse than July’s decline of -9.3% yly and marked the weakest 1- year growth rate since March 2023. On a 2-year basis, August also came in below July’s trend. By category, the pace of y/y declines worsened in August across the board led by decelerations in household appliances and home furnishings. In absolute terms, electronics and home furnishings saw the largest decline Y/Y in August at -17%.
Meanwhile, the Morgan Stanley retail tracker fell 0.6% in August and the tracker from JPM puts the August control group on retail sales down 0.24%.
The ISM services data is due up at the top of the hour and I see downside risks to the consensus of 52.5, which is just below the 52.7 reading previously.
US ISM Services PMI