The latest from the American Bankers Association’s Economic Advisory Committee
- composed of 14 chief economists from some of North America’s largest banks
Forecasts, in brief:
- real economic growth slowing to less than 1.0% annualized over the next three quarters
- median committee forecast does not include any quarterly contractions
- considerable concerns about a mild recession remain – risks center primarily around the delayed impact of monetary tightening, deteriorating credit availability, and high credit costs, but also include event risks such as a prolonged government shutdown or renewed flaring of geopolitical tensions. The group consensus is that near-term recession risks have come down but are still significant for 2024, approaching 50%.
On the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC):
- will leave the target federal funds rate range unchanged until May 2024
- then reduce it by 100 basis points before the end of 2024
Bolding is mine.
From the report: