EUR/USD has fallen from 1.0730 to 1.0695 in the aftermath of the ECB decision, even though the central bank delivered a 25 bps rate hike today. The key takeaway is that they hinted that this should be the final rate hike of the cycle and lower economic projections and also lower inflation projections for next year certainly bolsters that narrative.
EUR/USD daily chart
The ECB could have played it out in a number of different options today but this is probably the worst one for the euro in my view.
It is now up to Lagarde to try and save the day and reaffirm that they can still hike if need be. But I wouldn’t be rushing to buy the euro even if she does try and talk up such a game. I mean we all know that they are done already but to explicitly admit that, was not something I would’ve expected.
EUR/USD is now pushing towards the month’s lows around 1.0685-90 and with US data coming up, there might be a push to break that and look towards the May low of 1.0635 if the circumstances line up.