The FOMC rate decision is “one sleep away” and less than 24-hours away. The decision will take place at 2 p.m. The expectation is for no change in the target range of 5.25% to 5.5%.
The question that traders will be answering is “Will the no change be more hawkish or dovish or balanced?”. That bias will decide the short-term direction of the dollar, yields and stocks.
The dot plot and the central tendencies will be of focus. Recall from June, the dot plot targeted 5.60% as the end of your rate. That implies one more tightening between now and the end of the year. Most think that if there is a change it might be lower for 2023 (likely unchanged though). For 2024, the Fed consensus targeted a rate of 4.6% as the end of year rate. Will the Fed signal they plan to keep rates steady for longer going forward to snuff out the sticky core inflation? If so that end-of-year target rate might be raised.
The Fed will also give their expectations for central tendencies for employment, inflation, and GDP.
- The unemployment rate at the end of 2023 was estimated at 4.1% and in 2024 at 4.5%. The current US unemployment rate is at 3.8% after moving up from 3.5% in the most current employment to release
- Core PCE inflation at the end of 2023 was estimated at 3.9% and at 2.6% for 2024. Most expect that 2023 will be revised lower
- GDP was estimated at 1% for the end of 2023 and 1.1% for 2024. Most expect that the end of year GDP will be revised higher
In the US debt market today, US rates moved higher and traded to the highest level going back to 2007 for the 5 and 10-year portion of the US yield curve. Although the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged, the yield curve has done a good deal of tightening for the Fed since the last interest rate decision on July 26.
- 2 year yield is currently at 5.092%. On July 26 it was at 4.85%
- 5 year yield is currently at 4.515%. On July 16 it was at 4.118%
- 10 year yield is currently at 4.366%. On July 26 it was at 3.871%
- 30 year yield is currently at 4.43%. On July 26 it was at 3.937%
In the Forex market today, the CAD is ending the day is the strongest of the major currencies, while the JPY is the weakest (the BOJ will announce their rate decision on Friday with no change expected). The CPI data out of Canada today came in higher-than-expected helping to support the loonie. However, the USDCAD is trading well off its lows for the day (high for the CAD).
The USD is ending the day mixed to lower with declines of -0.27% to -0.30% vs the commodity currencies including the CAD, AUD and NZD. The Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes show that they contemplated a hike of 25 basis points which help to support the AUD today. The US dollar had smaller modest gains versus the EUR, JPY and CHF (it was near unchanged vs the GBP).
The strongest to the weakest of the major currencies
In the US stock market today, the major indices close lower part off their lowest levels of the day:
- Dow Industrial Average Rich fell -106.57 points or -0.31%. At the session lows the index was down -312.62 points.
- S&P index fell -9.58 points or -0.22%. At session lows the index fell -36.91 points
- NASDAQ index fell -32.06 points or -0.23%. At session lows index fell -131.37 points
in other markets:
- Crude oil is trading at $90.86
- Spot gold is trading down $-2 or -0.14% at $1932
- Bitcoin is trading at $27,188 which is not far from the opening New York level of $27,216