Bitcoin might be stuck in a major range between the
25231 support and the 31044 resistance as the uncertainty around the future
outlook is now at its highest levels. On one hand, we have some resilience in
the economies with the inflation rates slowly normalising, but on the other
hand, we have signs of weakening growth and the central banks committed to keep
monetary conditions tight for a long time. The technicals should help with the
risk management until we start to get a clearer direction.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
– Daily Timeframe
Bitcoin Daily
On the daily chart, we can see that Bitcoin bounced
again on the key 25231 support and
rallied into the downward trendline where it
found a strong resistance. This is where we can expect the sellers to pile in
with a defined risk above the trendline to target a break below the key
support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking
above the trendline to target the highs again.
Bitcoin Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
Bitcoin 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price has
been diverging with the
MACD while it
approached the trendline. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often
followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, we should see a pullback into
the black trendline where the buyers will pile in with a defined risk below the
trendline to target a break above the major downward trendline and new higher
highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking
below the trendline to confirm the reversal and position for a selloff into the
key support.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
– 1 hour Timeframe
Bitcoin 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the support zone around the black trendline and the 26800 level.
There’s nothing to do at the moment other than waiting for a pullback or a
breakout.
Upcoming Events
This week has a few important economic releases that can
have an impact on Bitcoin. Today, the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged
with the market focusing more on the Dot Plot and Powell’s press conference,
where he’s likely to reaffirm their data dependency. Tomorrow, we will get the
latest US Jobless Claims report and much worse than expected data should weigh
on Bitcoin due to recessionary fears while much better-than-expected figures
are likely to weigh on the cryptocurrency due to risks of more tightening from
the Fed. Finally on Friday we conclude the week with the US PMIs data with the
same playbook as for the Jobless Claims, that is, weak data is likely to send
the markets into risk off and lead to weakness in Bitcoin, while strong data
should weigh due to a more hawkish repricing in rates.