Vanguard manages circa USD8.1 tln in mutual funds.
Prior to this week’s FOMC meeting its chief global economist and head of the Vanguard Investment Strategy Group said the Fed may need to continue hiking interest rates, one to three more times.
- cited a substantially higher neutral rate of interest since the 2007-2009 recession
Put a 70% likelihood of the U.S. falling into a recession in the next 18 months
- “a soft landing is still possible, but not probable in our view, as it would require an unlikely ‘painless disinflation process’” (a scenario in which inflation moves back to the Fed’s 2% target without slowing demand)
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A neutral rate of interest is the level of monetary policy that’s neither stimulating nor restricting economic growth. The higher it is, the tighter that Fed policy has to go in order to make a meaningful impact on the economy and inflation.