USDJPY breaks lower. Sellers more control
USDJPY
The USDJPY tried to move below its 100-hour moving average yesterday, and again today, and each time the price bounced higher.
In the morning kickstart video, I talked about the 3rd break being the charm, and indeed it has been. More momentum followed the most recent break, and that momentum has now taken the price also below its 200 hour moving at 147.48.
Looking at recent low levels this week, close risk is now a move above 147.56. There is a swing area between 147.466 and 147.560 (see red numbered circles). I would expect that if the price moves above 147.56, there would be disappointment on the failed break.
On the downside, there is a lot of support until the 147.00 level (see blue numbered circles) followed by the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the September load to the September high. The level comes in at 146.917.
Sellers are making a play. Traders are watching the 147.56 level as a close risk-defining level.
PS.. The USDJPY tends to react to levels of interest rates. Looking at the US yield curve, the 2 year yield is trading near Lowe’s for the day at 5.133%. The time yield came in near 5.20%. However the 10 year yield is still elevated up 12.7 basis points to 4.473%. That is near its high for the day near 4.5%.