Copper continued to trade
within a symmetrical triangle for months as the uncertainty on the global
economy kept both buyers and sellers at bay. The recent more hawkish than
expected FOMC dot plot might have given the market a wakeup call that the
central banks will keep monetary conditions tight as long as necessary to cause
a significant deceleration in economic growth and bring inflation back to
target. The higher energy prices are also likely to weigh on the global economy
and lead to a quicker deceleration in growth.
Copper Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe
Copper Daily
On the daily chart, we can see that Copper
eventually broke out of the symmetrical triangle it was
stuck into for months. This breakout opened the door for a fall into the key support around
the 3.54 level where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk
below the support to position for a rally into the downward trendline around
the 3.70 level. Until then, the sellers should remain in control.
Copper
Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
Copper 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have the
low around the 3.64 level acting as support. If we get a bounce here, the
sellers are likely to lean on the minor downward trendline where we have the confluence with the
red 21 moving average. The
buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking above the
trendline to position for a rally back into the broken upward trendline around
the 3.75 level.
Copper Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe
Copper 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have another short term downward trendline that is acting as resistance. The
sellers are leaning on this trendline targeting a break below the 3.64 support.
If we do get a breakout, we should see even more sellers piling in and probably
lead to a selloff into the 3.54 level. A break above this short term, should
see the price rallying into the trendline around the 3.70 level.
Upcoming Events
This week is pretty bare on
the data front and the only report that might weigh on Copper looks to be the
US Jobless Claims tomorrow. Strong readings are likely to keep Copper
supported in the short term, while weak figures might weigh on sentiment and
demand outlook and drag Copper prices lower.