- Prior 49.3
The good news at least is that there is an improvement in Spain’s services sector towards the end of Q3, albeit a marginal one. But output was still well below the average seen so far on the year with business confidence also falling to a nine-month low. HCOB notes that:
“The latest HCOB PMI composite numbers give Spain good ammunition to support its reputation of being one of the most
resilient economies of the eurozone during these shaky times. In September the composite PMI returned to growth territory,
after dipping shortly below the 50.0 threshold. This does not mean that Spain is experiencing a new boom but tells us that
Spain is stacking up well against its Eurozone peers. Our nowcast model, which considers the latest PMI-figures and other
statistics, expects growth of 0.1% in the third quarter. For the whole year GDP should expand by 2%.
“In September, the service sector was dishing out a spoonful of hope. There is a bit of a bounce in activity and companies
are going solid on the hiring front, even outdoing last month’s numbers. New business is treading water, but this appears to
be at a rather high level, given healthy growth between last November to this July.
“Some softness in services is coming from tourism, which is underscored by the decline in new export orders. Apart from the
tourist sector, surveyed companies were calling out generally weak demand as the culprit for not letting them shine brighter.
“The PMI price indices tell a somewhat ambiguous story. Both input prices and prices charged to customers increased at a
higher rate than the month before. Thus, service firms managed to shuffle at least a chunk of those increases for wages,
energy, and so on to customers. However, it also hints that the Spanish government’s hustle to rein in inflation through
various price regulations – so far rather successfully – could be hitting a rough patch.”