I posted a screenshot of the expected and priors here earlier, here it is again:
We go into the data with a relatively sedate yuan, its been fairly flat against the USD for weeks now. This is nearly all due to the efforts of the People’s Bank of China, the Bank has been holding the USD/CNY reference rate on the 7.17 big figure despite market pricing circa 7.30.
On the data, Gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to have grown 4.4% in the July-September quarter from a year earlier. slowing from 6.3% pace
in Q2. The lower number will come despite, or maybe because of, piecemeal financial stabilisation efforts across the property and banking
sectors, along with some real economy support.
Retail sales are expected to show continued improvement after the bounce back in August. Note that the week-long Golden Week holiday should improve retail sales data but the holiday fell in October and so will not show up in today’s data for September.
Industrial Production is being hampered by stumbling export performance. Tepid international demand is weighing on China’s exports, recovery is happening, but its slow. As well as this, supply chains are (slowly) diversifying away from China.
The fixed investment data has been growing again, much of this due to stimulus efforts directed towards manufacturing.