Last week, we got some risk aversion in the market
as the tensions in the Middle East intensified. In fact, going into the weekend
the bearish momentum increased as ABC news reported
that the Israeli military got the “green light” to move into Gaza
whenever it was ready. Since we haven’t seen any ground offence over the
weekend, we might see a relief rally today.
Russell 2000 Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe
Russell 2000 Daily
On the daily chart, we can see that the Russell
2000 broke below a key support around
the 1720 level as the bearish momentum going into the weekend intensified. This
breakout opened the door for a fall back to the 2022 lows around the 1650
level. That’s where we can expect the buyers to step in more strongly with a
defined risk below the lows to position for a rally back to the highs.
Russell 2000 Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
Russell 2000 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we had a descending triangle formed
on the key support with the price eventually breaking downwards. The price got
a bit overstretched to the downside though as depicted by the distance from the
blue 8 moving average. In such
instances, we can generally see a pullback into the moving average or some
consolidation before the next move.
Russell 2000 Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
Russell 2000 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
now have a strong support turned
resistance around the 1720 level. If we get a relief
rally today, the sellers are likely to lean on the resistance where we can also
find the confluence with
the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level and the red 21 moving average in
what could end up being a classic “break and retest” pattern. The buyers, on
the other hand, will want to see the price further breaking above the
resistance to increase the bullish bets and target the major trendline around
the 1800 level.
Upcoming
Events
Today, we will get the US PMIs and the market might
not like bad figures given the fragile risk sentiment. On Thursday, we will see
the US Jobless Claims data with Continuing Claims recently showing some
softness in the labour market. Finally, on Friday, we will get the US PCE
report, which is not expected to change anything for the Fed at this time.