The pair is now down to 1.0634 on the day, lower by 0.3% as it owes more to a slump in the euro with the dollar keeping relatively steadier on the session. The greenback was slightly softer earlier on but 10-year Treasury yields are now up 2.1 bps to 4.858% and that is helping the dollar to find a bit of a footing. As for the euro, the poor PMI readings from France and Germany has been a real drag for the single currency.
EUR/USD daily chart
With the drop today, EUR/USD is threatening to undo yesterday’s technical breakthrough above the 23.6 Fib retracement level at 1.0643. That will give sellers back some semblance of control, as they are also putting up a defense with price action having fallen off after hitting a high of 1.0693 earlier – which tested the 100-week moving average of 1.0685.
That tells us that any upside break is not secured just yet and will rely a lot on the daily close today to some degree.
If buyers can’t hang on and keep price above 1.0643, it’s tough to argue for a strong push higher in EUR/USD unless Treasury yields threaten to retrace much more than it already has yesterday.
In turn, that perhaps is a sigh of relief for dollar bulls as well considering that EUR/USD was the only pair that really threatened something at the start of the day here.