The copper market remains
in a tight spot. The Chinese data continues to improve amid more support from
the Chinese officials while the future outlook of the global economy is
weakening given the tighter financial conditions and some early cracks in the labour
markets. The technicals should be more helpful here as we have defined levels
and breakouts will point to the most likely direction.
Copper Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe
Copper Daily
On the daily chart, we can see that Copper after
breaking out of the symmetrical triangle got
stuck in a descending triangle defined by the support around
the 3.55 level and the top trendline. We
recently got a fakeout below the support and a quick bounce back up as the
buyers continue to target the top trendline amid resilience in the global
economy and the improving Chinese data.
Copper Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe
Copper 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that Copper is now
trading in a range between the 3.55 support and the 3.68 resistance where we
have also a trendline for confluence. We can
expect the sellers to lean on the resistance with a defined risk above it to
target the support and ultimately a downside breakout. The buyers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking above the resistance to increase the
bullish bets and target the major trendline around the 3.75 level.
Copper Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe
Copper 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have a good support zone around the 3.63 level where we have the confluence
with the trendline and the 50% Fibonacci
retracement level. This is where we can expect the
buyers to step in with a defined risk below the trendline to target the
resistance and eventually a breakout. The sellers, on the other hand, will want
to see the price breaking lower to pile in and target the support.
Upcoming Events
Tomorrow we will see the latest US Jobless Claims data
with the market likely focusing on the Continuing Claims figures as they’ve
missed expectations two times in a row already and might be a signal that the
labour market is weakening. Weak jobless claims could weigh on Copper, while
good data is likely to support it. On Friday, we will get the US PCE report
which is unlikely to change anything for the near-term policy outlook.