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The Fed decision is the headliner on this week’s US economic calendar but the Treasury threatens to steal the show.
Today at 3 pm ET, the Treasury will release its quarterly borrowing requirements for Q1 while the details of auction sizes will come Wednesday at 8:30 am ET (which is 12:30 GMT due to the time change).
Borrowing sizes will go up due to swelling US deficits but the market is trying to figure out the weighting on the curve. The Treasury has been boosting long-dated issuance and larger auctions are one contributor to the blowout in yields last quarter. That’s prompting speculation that they will lean harder on the short end.
Because of that, today’s announcement is likely to be less of a market mover Wednesday.
A January buyback announcement is also likely to improve liquidity.