USDJPY daily
The last time USD/JPY rose this high, it was beaten back by 700 pips within 24 hours.
It will be a high-stakes game when Tokyo returns today. The ministry of finance often warns against one-sided moves and that’s exactly what we’ve seen today with USD/JPY up 250 pips to 151.60.
Eyes are on 151.94, which was the high in October 2022 and the level that triggered intervention then, leading to a fall to 145.41 the next day and down to 128.00 in the following 10 weeks.
Now the MoF might be incline to leave some extra leeway in USD/JPY today given the fundamental news but I certainly wouldn’t bet the house on it.
The better trade now might be to wait for Tokyo to arrive and buy a dip if intervention happens.