The New York branch of the Federal Reserve released its Multivariate Core Trend (MCT) inflation measure on Tuesday ICYMI.
The main points highlighted by the Fed:
- Multivariate Core Trend (MCT) inflation was 2.9 percent in September, a 0.3 percentage point increase from August (which was revised up from 2.5 percent). The 68 percent probability band is (2.4, 3.3).
- Services ex-housing accounted for 0.54 percentage point (ppt) of the increase in the MCT estimate relative to its pre-pandemic average, while housing accounted for 0.50 ppt. Core goods had the smallest contribution, 0.03 ppt.
- A large part of the persistence in housing and services ex-housing is explained by the sector-specific component of the trend.
A +0.3% m/m jump in core inflation. Inflation is not over yet.