In addition to the Fed decision tomorrow at 2 PM, the decision will be accompanied by the start of monthly employment statistics.
- ADP national employment for October is expected at 150K vs 89K last month. This statistic was reworked and reworked again over time. Now they don’t profess to try to mimic the US BLS survey that last month came in at 336K (well above the 89K from the ADP). As a result, the market is more likely to ignore the data
- JOLTs job openings will be released at 10 AM ET with the expectations of a decline to 9.250 million from 9.610 million. The range of estimates is from 8.970M to 9.760M. Of note is that last month the expectation was for job openings to be 8.8000M. It came in much higher than that (at 9.610M) which started a run higher in yields and run lower in stocks.
- Also at 10 AM, the ISM manufacturing PMI data will be released. The PMI is expected to remain unchanged at 49.0 for the month. The employment index is expected to dip to 50.3 from 51.2.
- Thursday, the unemployment claims are expected to come in at 210K versus 210K last week. The last 4 weeks have been between 198 and 210K
Later this week on Friday, the US jobs data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics will be released with expectations of a gain of 179K versus 336K last month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.8%.