In this video on November 2, 2023, I kickstart the Forex trading day with a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. What are the biases, the risks, the targets for those three major currency pairs?
EURUSD: The EURUSD had an up-and-down trading day on the first trading day of November and through the FOMC rate decision. The low prices on the dips reached down to test a swing area between 1.0520 and 1.05316. On the topside, most of the trading found resistance near the 100-hour MA at 1.0577. At the start of the new trading day, the price is near the high extreme at 1.0570. It would take a move above the 100-hour moving average of 1.0577 and the 200-hour moving average of 1.05867 to tilt the technical bias back to the upside. Conversely, sellers leaning against the 100 hour moving average would want to see the price move away from that level in the new trading day. The 61.8% retracement of the October trading range comes in at 1.05416. Below that is the swing area down to 1.0520.
USDJPY. The USDJPY moved sharply higher on Tuesday trading in the process sniff that the swing-2022 at 151.938. The high price reached 151.707. In trading yesterday, the price moved up to 151.68 and backed off. The 2022 high was a multi-decade high. It’s not surprising to see sellers leaning early against that multi-decade high, risking a little to hopefully make more than a little on sellers pushing the price lower away from that multi-decade high. Drilling to the hourly chart, the fall lower on Wednesday briefly fell back below the swing high from last Thursday’s trade at 150.774, but could not sustain momentum. The current price trades at 150.85. In the new trading today it would take a move below 150.774 – and stay below – to increase the bearish bias. On more selling, the 100-hour moving average comes in at 150.28 and the 200-hour moving comes in a 150.112. Both those levels are near familiar levels from October at 150.15 and 150.00.
GBPUSD: The GBPUSD – like the EURUSD – traded up and down on Wednesday through the FOMC meeting. Not like the EURUSD, the price has not exactly respected its 100-hour moving average at 1.2137 and 200-hour moving average of 1.2149. The price traded above and below the two moving averages without much respect for their importance as a bullish or bearish bias defining level. That happens. But it doesn’t still make us cognizant of its importance. In the new trading day if there is more momentum above the 200-hour moving average 1.2149, look for further momentum above 1.2167 and then the 50% of the most recent move down at 1.2178. Getting above those levels would give buyers more confidence. Conversely, moving below the 100 hour moving at a 1.2137 and staying below increases the bearish bias with targets near 1.2105 – 1.21109.