In this morning video on November 6, 2023, I kickstart the Forex trading day with a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. What are the biases, the risks, the targets for those three major currency pairs?
EURUSD: The EURUSD raced higher on Friday after the US jobs report and today, the price continued its move to the upside. The high price reached 1.07556. That level was about 7 or 8 pips short of the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the July 18 high to the October low at 1.07637.. That’s the lower leg swing area at 1.07816 that would need to be broken to increase the bullish bias going forward. The price has rotated back down and currently trades near a swing high going back to September 20 at 1.0736. That level will be a close intraday bias for traders with 1.0722 being another level to get to and through to increase a short-term corrective bias. Conversely, holding the levels would keep the buyers in play.
USDJPY: The USDJPY fell sharply last week after surging to a high of 151.707 (and away from the 150.00 level). The sharp fall on Friday after the US jobs report took the price down to 149.181 before rebounding modestly into the close. In trading today, the price action has been up and down but has been able to extend further to the upside. We’re currently trade near 149.78. On the top side, the 150.00 level becomes a key level for both buyers and sellers. I would expect sellers to lean against that level on a test with additional resistance up near 150.154. Move above those levels and the idea of going lower in the USDJPY loses some of its luster.
GBPUSD: The GBPUSD – like the EURUSD – broke higher on Friday and extended outside of the range is seen over the last 6 or 7 weeks. Breaking above the swing however October at 1.2336 gives the buyers some hope. In trading today, the price continued its move to the upside but found willing sellers ahead of the 100-day moving average of 1.2434. The high price it today got within 7/8 pips of that level at 1.2427. Above that is a 38.2% retracement of the move down from the July 2023 high at 1.24582. On the downside, traders watch 1.23684 close support. Move below that level we could see further probing to the downside with a 1.2336 swing high from early October as the line in the sand. Go below the level and there will be disappointment on the break higher on Friday.