The AUDUSD moved higher at the start of November, with some of the run-up on the “risk-on” flow helped by higher US stocks. More recently, the pair has moved lower (3 days down). China slower growth is a concern perhaps (inflation today it was negative for both CPI and PPI in China).
Technically, the price highs reached earlier this week tested and extended briefly above it falling 100-day moving average currently at 0.64995 (call it 0.6500).
The move lower in the AUDUSD took the price down toward the 0.6395-6400 swing high area from October trading. Support buyers have come in and near those levels in trading yesterday and again today. That level remains a risk level for buyers. Stay above is more bullish. Move below and we should see further downside momentum.
Today, however, the price is higher, threatening to snap the 3-day decline.
Drilling to the hourly chart, the price in the US session has been able to extend back above its rising 200-hour moving average (green line in the chart below). That level comes in at 0.6418. Intraday and short-term, the best-case scenario would be for the buyers to hold above that level to keep the upside hope alive. If that can be done, the potential close reward would be a move toward the 100-hour moving average currently at 0.64516, and a swing area between 0.6445 and 0.6455.
The AUDUSD is above its 200 hour MA