It’s been a rather tentative start to the new week so far and that is likely to continue later in European trading today. All eyes are on the US CPI data that is to come later in the day. As such, market players are not going to be too interested to pre-commit to any moves beforehand. The expectation is for headline annual inflation to fall further to 3.3% in October:
US CPI year-on-year (%)
However, core annual inflation is expected to remain a bit more sticky at 4.1% – similar to September. As for the monthly readings, it is estimated that headline inflation is to increase by 0.1% on the month while core inflation is to increase by 0.3% on the month.
Overall, it still suggests that price pressures are on staying on course towards the Fed’s 2% target. But there is still a possibility that inflation could be more sticky especially as we hug the 3% to 4% levels at the moment. If so, that could still prompt the central bank to tighten further should the economy continue to hold up as it is in recent months.
The thing to watch out for today would be for any surprises to the above readings. That will be what impacts the Fed outlook and in turn, trading sentiment and any broader market spillover from the reaction in Treasuries especially.