US 10 year yield falls below 4.5%
The US 10-year yield fell sharply today and is currently down -16.1 basis points at 4.47%. The low yield today reached 4.434%.
Looking at the daily chart, the move lower today took the price below the 4.500% level and also a swing level near 4.484%. Staying that level keeps the downside traders fully in control.
On the downside, the next target area comes between the rising 100-day moving average of 4.323% and the high of a swing area of 4.362%. In between is the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the April 2023 low at 4.346%.
The tamer CPI took out any chance of a December hike. In addition, traders started to price the Fed moving rates lower earlier in 2024. The June Fed funds futures contract is now pricing in a 25 basis point cut. There are 100 bps of cuts priced in for 2024.