Here are charts showing US inventories of crude oil, gasoline, distillates (diesel) and jet fuel.
The crude chart gives you an idea of why oil was rallying into October but has fallen since, as storage has ticked higher after falling below 2022 levels in Sept/Oct.
But what really stands out is distillate fuel. With the latest data, inventories of diesel are at the lowest since 1982, and in a much larger economy. We’re now heading into home-heating season and there are growing signs that US manufacturing is picking up.
Finally, there are reports of waves of ships heading to the US to pick up oil exports, which should tighten the overall picture. Russia has significantly tightened European distillate markets so I’m not sure where the relief valve is here, unless refineries can find a way to run harder.
In any case, it’s all worth keeping a close eye on.