Oil spilled lower today for a brief period before rebounding strongly. WTI is currently up $1.49 to $76.35 after falling as low as $74.86.
In focus is this week’s planned OPEC+ meeting. Crude stumbled on a report that it could be delayed again but the market began to take a different view when it was reported that the issue continues to be African production baselines. I find that reasoning to be a stretch but not much is coming from the usually-leaky OPEC sources, in part because this is going to be an online meeting.
WTI crude oil daily
In any case, I tend to think of the price action in the past few days as noise. Ultimately, we will get a decision on OPEC+ (presumably Thursday) and the market can deal with it then. Crude is consolidating for now and we will surely get a breakout afterwards.
On the upside, US metrics on air travel over Thanksgiving were at records and the market is falling in love with the idea of a soft landing or no landing scenario. If that unfolds and the Fed delivers on rate cuts in 2024, then there are upside risks to demand.
Update: Another spot to watch will be the API private oil inventory data after the US close. That’s been known to be leaky and a big surprise draw would no longer be a surprise.