It’s a mixed call though, with roughly 48% of respondents predicting the first rate cut to come in Q3 (although this number is up from 38% in the November poll). Meanwhile, around 30% (or 20/68 economists) are penciling in the first rate cut to come in Q2 next year. The year-end rate forecast is seen at 4.50% and that is also similar to last month’s poll.
Mind you, markets have fully priced in the first rate cut for June next year with ~84 bps worth of rate cuts priced in currently for the entirety of 2024.