Today’s double-slate of Treasury auctions starts at 11:30 am ET with a sale of 3s. The $50 billion auction is a new issue and should sell just above 3.51%.
A concession has built in today and the three-year tenor is an interesting spot given the expectations for Fed rate cuts over that period. T-bills are paying 5.40% while 2s are at 4.76% so I can see the argument for locking in for another year at only at 25 bps discount (or less) to 2s. That’s why I think we could see a strong auction.
As for the history, the last six auctions have featured three tails and three stop-throughs, all around 0.9 bps.
What makes this auction a bit more tricky is that 10s will be sold 90 minutes afterwards.