The greenback is slightly lower on the day but it is still early to be deciding its fate as markets are eyeing the US CPI data to come later. So, I wouldn’t look too much into the early moves but let’s at least take a look at the technicals. USD/JPY is down 0.5% to 145.45 currently but remains caught in between its key daily moving averages:
USD/JPY daily chart
The range between the 100-day (red line) and 200-day (blue line) moving averages is rather large, with the former at 147.55 and the latter at 142.41 currently. But that seems to be where price action is sitting at, after having bounced off the 200-day moving average and 38.2 Fib retracement level to move back above 145.00 at the end of last week.
The BOJ considerations have also made things a little less clear since Ueda’s comments last week, adding to the squeeze in long positions amid the retreat in November.
As such, there’s still plenty to play for this week with such a range for price action in USD/JPY at the moment.
Besides the yen, the other two decent gainers today are the aussie and kiwi. AUD/USD is up 0.4% to just under 0.6600 but is pushing back above its 200-day moving average (blue line) at 0.6574 on the day.
AUD/USD daily chart
There has been plenty of pushing and pulling going on in the pair as of late but traders will be hoping for more clarity this week. The movement in and around the 200-day moving average highlights some indecision for now. However, if there is scope for a clean break in price action, that should be one that has room to run in the bigger picture.
To the downside, the 0.6500 level and 100-day moving average (red line) at 0.6461 will be ones to watch. As for the upside, it will be the recent highs near 0.6676-90 being the first hurdle before potentially talking about the June and July highs near 0.6900.