The FOMC rate decision will take place later at 2 PM with the Fed expected to keep rates unchanged. However, there is a lot of uncertainty from the details including the statement, the Fed Chair Powell comments, the “dot plot” and the measures of inflation, GDP, and employment from the central tendencies.
How all those “ingredients” make the “bullish or bearish brew” is up to the market’s interpretation and that will manifest itself in the price action. If the Fed is more dovish, the USD should go lower. If the Fed is more hawkish (or less dovish), the USD should go higher.
Traders can measure the extent of bullish or bearish by applying technical tools. Breaking technical levels by definition either increases the bullish or bearish sentiment. Knowing where the levels are, is the most important clue traders can have. They provide the roadmap for traders.
In this video, I take a deep dive into the AUDUSD and define the bias, and the targets that would need to be broken to increase the bullish bias or increase the bearish bias. The subsequent targets outside of the initial breaks. Those levels are also risk levels for traders through the fireworks from all the “ingredients”. If the price of the AUDSD moves above a key upside target, it becomes a stop level for shorts too.
We don’t know hand the Fed may play today. We can have ideas, or “think” we know. What we do know is that if “this level is broken – and stays broken”, it increases the bullish or bearish bias (dependent on the direction of the break).
Understanding the roadmap will go a long way toward success through key market-moving events.
AUDUSD trades in a range between the floor and ceiling