BlackRock’s investment arm is quite vague on when the expect the first, and subsequent, rate cuts coming from the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), saying only “around the end of the spring into the summer”.
Bank analysts have been more precise:
Goldman Sachs expects the easing cycle to begin in March
J.P.Morgan, BofA expect easing to begin June
Barclays are also in June for cut #1
- three 25 bps cuts next year, from June
- said cuts could begin sooner than its June projection if monthly inflation remains softer than its forecasts
- but are wary, with concerns that inflation could rise again
UBS expect three 25 bps cuts next year, from May
Citi expects cuts beginning in July, 100bp in total for 2024, but are wary of upside risks in inflation yet to manifest.
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The fed funds target range is currently 5.25-5.50%