It is yet another day the Japanese yen bulls are feeling disappointed, as those hoping for any hints of an early policy pivot by the BOJ are left wanting. The central bank kicked the can down the road to March to April next year and Ueda is adamant about waiting on the results of the spring wage negotiations before committing to anything.
He reaffirmed that by saying that “it is difficult to present a firm picture on exit (from ultra easy policy)” and that they “don’t have a detailed picture on what steps and the order of it when it comes to exiting negative interest rates”. That is basically code for “come back in March or April next year, and then maybe you’ll have an answer”.
USD/JPY has risen further on the day to hit the 144.00 mark and is running into a test of its 200-hour moving average (blue line):
USD/JPY vs US Treasury 10-year yields (%) hourly chart
That is the key near-term level to watch right now as buyers are looking to try and make a play. Meanwhile, sellers are defending that in order to maintain some semblance of a downside momentum currently. This was also a key resistance point in trading last week as seen in the chart above.
Hold below and sellers will stay in the game for now but break above, and buyers may look towards a retest of 145.00 next.