The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) December meeting minutes are due at 2pm US Eastern time on Wednesday.
Officials at the Fed have been telegraphing around 3 rate cuts ahead in 2024. Market participants have run way ahead of this with expectations of 6 cuts, and even 7, commonplace. Prompting stern disapproval from some folks:
Today’s December meeting minutes are an opportunity to see some reassessment of expectations for the cuts coming in 2024. If there is pushback in the minutes it’ll add to comments from officials like New York Fed President Williams who said It’s premature to be even thinking about March cuts.
Analysts I’ve seen are wary of the euphoria, waring oin what is likely in the minutes today.
TD:
- “While Powell clearly alluded to the
possibility of easing, Fed officials since the Dec FOMC meeting have
pushed back on the idea of that happening imminently. In that vein,
we expect this week’s minutes to show that the FOMC is not
entertaining the case for rate cuts just yet”
Goldman Sachs:
- “The FOMC delivered a dovish message at its December meeting, as
the November inflation reports and back revisions suggested that
inflation had declined faster in the second half of the year. - In the December
meeting minutes, we will look for indications of the Committee’s
views on the pace of cuts next year, especially in light of Chair
Powell’s comments that “there’s a general expectation that
[rate cuts] will be a topic for [the FOMC], looking ahead,” - and
that “that’s really what happened in today’s meeting.”
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