- Twiitter confirms @SECGov was compromised, did not have two-factor authentication enabled
- JP Morgan warns that Red Sea terrorist attacks driving up shipping costs, inflation
- Russian crude oil exports in the first week of 2024 down by 500,000 bpd
- Chinese equities getting hammered again today
- AUD/USD tracking a little higher despite a beat for CPI data
- Bank of England Governor Bailey, other senior officials called before parliament Wednesday
- ECB vice President Luis de Guindos is speaking on Wednesday
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1055 (vs. estimate at 7.1618)
- Houthi terrorists launch biggest attack to date on merchant vessels in Red Sea
- Senior People’s Bank of China official hints at further easing to come
- Australian November CPI 4.3% y/y (expected 4.4%)
- New Zealand export prices rise, global shipping costs jump
- Peru declares emergency on northern border with Ecuador
- Twitter is investigating the hack of the US SEC account that led to Bitcoin turmoil
- Japan November wages data shows another deep fall
- European Central Bank’s Centeno signals earlier-than-expected rate cuts
- Swiss National Bank expects an annual loss of around 3 billion CHF
- BNP Paribas AM says the ECB is likely to cut before the Fed – March or April possible
- Amazon’s Twitch to cut 500 staff (thats around 35% of employees)
- JP Morgan on warning signs for stocks as disinflation process stalls, and risks rise
- “Irregular activity” reported in the Red Sea – multiple reports on UAS activity
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 9 Jan. Confusion reigns on Bitcoin ETF approval.
- The SEC will never live this down
- Oil – private survey of inventory shows much larger draw than was expected
- Eight reasons why a bitcoin ETF will be a ‘sell the fact’ trade
- SEC says Bitcoin ETFs have NOT been approved
- SEC account hacked to say bitcoin ETFs approved but it wasn’t
- Trade ideas thread – Wednesday, 10 January, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
- US stocks close mixed. Nasdaq closes with a small gain
Late
afternoon brought news across the wires that the U.S. Securities and
Exchange Commission (SEC) had approved spot Bitcoin ETFs. The only
hiccup was that ‘news’ was false, the SEC’s Twitter account
had been hacked. SEC Chair Gensler followed up the fake tweet saying
approval had not yet been given.
Bitcoin
went on a wild price ride. After highs above $47800 it fell hard and
is circa $46150 as I update.
Data
from Japan today showed wage growth for Japanese workers slowed
sharply in November 2023. The Bank of Japan is awaiting a virtuous
cycle of pay rises and price increases (demand-pull inflation, not
the cost-push type that has pushed prices higher in Japan so far and that the Bank argues are unsustainable) as a prerequisite for normalising
monetary policy. They didn’t get any evidence of it today. The wait
continues for Spring wage negotiations.
The
yen slid on the session, USD/JPY is just above 144.80 as I update and
not far from its high of the day.
From
Australia today we had the monthly inflation data for November 2023.
The headline came in at 4.3%, beating the 4.4% estimate (lower than
expected is a beat at this time) and its lowest since January
2022. Measures
of underlying inflation also fell back. Trimmed mean came in at 4.6%
y/y from 5.3% in October.
As
I posted earlier:
- The
monthly CPI data from Australia does not show all components of the
CPI, that’ll have to wait for the quarterly data release. - The
monthly CPI indicator does, however, provide a timelier indication of
inflation using the same data collected for use in the quarterly CPI.
The monthly reading includes updated prices for between 62 and 73 per
cent of the weight of the quarterly CPI basket, its not the full
picture. - The
November result includes data for most services, which is where the
RBA is most concerned about sticky inflation. - The
full quarterly reading will be on January 31 2024 for the October –
December 2023 quarter. - While
the drop for November is encouraging, and will trim the probability
of a February Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike somewhat, it’s the
Q4 data that counts most.
AUD/USD
traded higher despite the encouraging inflation data.
In
oil-related news, the oil inventory (private survey) data published
during the US afternoon showed a much larger draw than was expected.
In the Red Sea was the largest attack to date launched by
Iranian-backed Houthi terrorists against commercial shipping vessels.
US and allied naval forces beat back the attack. Oil has given back a
little of Tuesday gains.
And,
that’s a wrap!
Still
to come are central bank speakers from the European Central Bank,
Bank of England and Federal Reserve, see bullets above.