It is much easier to take a straight comparison on how the odds have changed. Here’s a look at things back at the end of December i.e. just two weeks ago:
- Federal Reserve: -156 bps (first -25 bps in March)
- European Central Bank: -161 bps (first -25 bps in April)
- Bank of England: -141 bps (first -25 bps in May)
- Swiss National Bank: -66 bps (first -25 bps in June)
- Bank of Canada: -120 bps (first -25 bps in April)
- Reserve Bank of Australia: -53 bps (first -25 bps in June)
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand: -93 bps (first -25 bps in May)
And here is how that has changed as of now:
- Federal Reserve: -140 bps (first -25 bps in May)
- European Central Bank: -138 bps (first -25 bps in April)
- Bank of England: -116 bps (first -25 bps in June)
- Swiss National Bank: -54 bps (first -25 bps in June)
- Bank of Canada: -122 bps (first -25 bps in April)
- Reserve Bank of Australia: -46 bps (first -25 bps in September)
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand: -85 bps (first -25 bps in July)
Besides the Bank of Canada, every other central bank have seen rate cut odds slashed with most also seeing the timing of the first rate cut shift. That speaks to the consideration put into the market moves last week and it is now down to the US CPI data tomorrow to bring all of that together.
Will we get more of a pushback on the aggressive rate cut pricing similar to the week before? Or are we going to revert back to the euphoric run in markets in November and December?