The latest poll by Reuters shows that economists are not convinced of much improvement in China’s economic prospects for next year. The forecast shows 2024 GDP growth to slow to 4.6%, although this is a marginal improvement to the 4.5% forecast in the October poll.
2023 GDP growth is forecast at 5.2%, also a slight step up from the 5.0% forecast at the end of Q3 previously.
In any case, the narrative here is that markets are still anticipating a slowdown in the Chinese economy this year amid deflationary pressures and the property market collapse. The post-Covid recovery has been nothing short of a major disappointment, especially as domestic demand has dropped dead in the water for large parts of last year.