USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected
  while dropping the tightening bias in the statement but adding a slight
  pushback against a March rate cut.
• Fed Chair Powell stressed that they want to see
  more evidence of inflation falling back to target and that a rate cut in March
  is not their base case.
• The latest US GDP beat expectations by a big
  margin.
• The US PCE came mostly in line with
  expectations with the Core 3-month and 6-month annualised rates falling below
  the Fed’s 2% target.
• The US Job Openings surprised to the upside
  although the hiring and quit rates remain below pre-pandemic levels.
• The latest US PMIs beat expectations by a
  big margin for both the Manufacturing and Services measures.
• The US Retail Sales beat expectations
  across the board.
• The US Consumer Confidence report came in
  line with expectations, but the labour market details improved considerably.
• The market now expects the first rate cut in May.

GBP

• The BoE left interest rates
  unchanged as expected at the last meeting with no dovish language as they
  reaffirmed that they will keep rates high for sufficiently long to return to
  the 2% target.
• The latest employment report showed
  job losses in December and lower than expected wage growth.
• The UK CPI beat expectations across
  the board, which is going to reinforce the BoE’s neutral stance.
• The latest UK PMIs showed the
  Manufacturing sector improving but remaining in contraction while the Services
  sector continues to expand.
• The latest UK Retail Sales missed
  expectations across the board by a big margin as consumer spending remains
  weak.
• The market expects the BoE to start
  cutting rates in May.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that GBPUSD keeps trading inside the range
between the 1.2610 support and 1.2800 resistance. The price is currently
approaching the support level where we can expect the buyers to step in with a
defined risk below the level to position for another rally into the resistance.
The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to
invalidate the bullish setup and position for a drop into the next support
around the 1.25 handle.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price
yesterday rallied into the downward trendline and got rejected as the sellers
stepped in to position for a drop into the support. The momentum then picked up
as the Fed resulted a bit more hawkish than expected and today, we can expect
some action around the support as we get the BoE rate decision and some key US
data.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have a steep downward trendline defining the current bearish impulse. If we do
see a bounce from the support, we can expect even more buyers piling in on a
break above the trendline as a confirmation for a change in momentum.

Upcoming Events

Today we have the BoE rate
decision where the central bank is expected to keep everything unchanged and
later on, we will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures and the ISM
Manufacturing PMI. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US NFP report.

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