The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q1 2024 growth was released earlier and increased to 4.2% from 3.0% from the January 26 estimate. In their own words:
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 4.2 percent on February 1, up from 3.0 percent on January 26. After this morning’s construction spending release from the US Census Bureau and the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 3.6 percent and -0.3 percent, respectively, to 4.9 percent and 1.7 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.27 percentage points to 0.18 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, February 7.
In the 4th quarter, the model projected growth of 2.4%. That was higher than the 2.0% estimate from the survey of analysts. The actual advanced GDP estimate came in stronger at 3.3%. At least they were on the higher bias in their model estimate.