US Treasury 10-year yields (%) daily chart
With the focus being on big US data this week, Treasuries will continue to stay under the spotlight once again. The rebound in 10-year yields since the non-farm payrolls is now turning the attention back to the January ceiling near 4.20%. For today, 10-year yields are down slightly by 1 bps to 4.175% but all eyes are on the US CPI data tomorrow.
That could be what bond sellers are looking for in raising the bar above the highlighted level of 4.20%. If so, that will have spillover impact to broader markets surely on the week.
Just keep in mind that the inflation numbers tomorrow isn’t the only big US data on the agenda this week. There will still be retail sales on Thursday, followed by producer prices and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey on Friday as well.
If yields are to turn lower and back away from the 4.20% mark towards 4% and below again, that should drag the dollar down along with it. As for risk trades, the S&P 500 is hoping for that to solidify a clear break above 5,000 from last week.