The market turned on a dime after a trio of US data releases all missed estimates.
The US dollar was at the highs of the day shortly before the data, in part due to a stronger S&P Global manufacturing PMI and comments from Barkin that were more hawkish. The fear was building that the Fed could be inching towards a more-hawkish stance, perhaps ruling out rate cuts in H1 and raising the idea of no cuts at all this year.
Instead, soft data was combined with comments from Goolsbee that were still dovish. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Waller didn’t weigh in at all on mon pol.
The moves have been substantial with the US dollar falling 30-40 pips across the board. EUR/SUD traded at 1.0800 before the data and is up to 1.0835, erasing most of yesterday’s decline.
EURUSD 10 mins
The bond market move is arguably more dramatic with US 10-year yields falling to 4.205% from 4.295% just before the data. The 4.20% level has been critical for 10s so far this year.
US 10 year yields, 5 mins