The economic calendar might be a bit of a bore today but don’t expect this week to be a quiet one. There are plenty of key risk events to watch out for in the coming days. Here is the list of data releases on the agenda:
- UK February labour market report (12/03)
- US February CPI data (12/03)
- UK January monthly GDP data (13/03)
- US February PPI data (14/03)
- US February retail sales (14/03)
- US weekly initial jobless claims (14/03)
- US March Empire State manufacturing index (15/03)
- US March University of Michigan consumer sentiment (15/03)
The ones in bold are the key ones to pay attention to. And these are the ones that will feed into the Fed outlook and broader inflation narrative.
However, this week will also feature a few more complications. There will also be Treasury auctions to watch out for with regards to the bond market. The 10-year (12/03) and 30-year (13/03) notes auctions are on the agenda as well and that will add to factors to be mindful of for bonds and the dollar.
Besides that, we also have the conclusion of Japan’s spring wage negotiations. As Eamonn highlighted earlier here, it is going to be a big one to watch before we get to the BOJ policy meeting next week. We are likely to hear reports on the results any time between 13 March to 15 March. As such, headline risk will be paramount for the yen currency in the week ahead.