The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meet on March 19 and 20. Market expectations heading into the meeting are, at present, slightly above 50% for a June 25bp rate cut.
Analysts at Wolfe Research in the US are flagging a concern:
- “We think the risk leans a bit hawkish next week”
- “After two strong CPI prints, we’re not convinced the Fed will be ready to cut rates by the June meeting with only 2.5 additional CPI readings from here (May CPI comes out on the 2nd day of the June FOMC).”
- “This would be reflected in the Fed potentially moving its median 2024 dot to two cuts instead of three, although this is not yet our base case”
I can’t help but agree. After hot inflation reports for January and February we have all been bombarded with excuses reminiscent of the ‘transitory’ days, but this time from analysts, not from the Fed. Fed officials have been more cautious on inflation readings than the median economists.
The BOJ statement is on the 19th.
The FOMC will be on the 20th.
Buckle up!
Fashion tip for next week
ps. There are calls coming in for later Fed rate cuts:
If at all: