The agency raised its 2024 global oil demand growth forecast by 110k bpd to 1.3 mil bpd. However, it says that “the global economic slowdown acts as an additional headwind to oil use, as do improving vehicle efficiencies and expanding electric vehicle fleets”. Adding that economic growth should “revert towards its historical trend after the extreme volatility of the pandemic years”.
IEA notes that the weaker economic outlook, efficiency improvements and EV sales will temper with growth in the oil market. But if OPEC+ production cuts are maintained through 2024, the market might be in a slight deficit rather than a surplus this year.