- 21 of 34 (~62%) economists expect BOJ to end negative rates in April
- 12 of 34 (~35%) economists expect such a move in March next week
- Similarly, 62% expect the BOJ to scrap YCC in April while 31% say that will take place in March
I think the odds fairly reflect prevailing market sentiment, especially after Ueda’s more cautious remarks this week. One might argue that waiting to April can be deemed as the “safer” approach. That considering the BOJ will have more confirmation on wage talks and another month of economic data at least.
However, we all know the outcome of the spring wage negotiations will be enough of a platform for them to stand on. And they already have had a year to prepare for this next step. So, why not just rip off the band aid and get it over and done with?