The highlight on the economic calendar later is a speech from Fed Governor Chris Waller. He has a hawkish bent, so there is some fear he could be the messenger of a tougher stance on monetary policy.
However it’s worth a look back to February 22, when he last spoke. His full comments are here but the one that stands out is:
- The start of policy easing and the number of rate cuts will depend on incoming data
I don’t think that’s changed and it’s in-line with what Chairman Jerome Powell said after the FOMC.
Also, as a reminder, his prior comments did have something of a hawkish bent as he said that cutting too soon could squander inflation progress and that there is “no rush” to begin cuts.
“The strength of the economy and recent inflation data mean it is appropriate ‘to be patient, careful, methodical, deliberative… whatever word you pick, they all translate to one idea: what’s the rush?” he said.
The only guidance he offered was that he still expects to cut rates “this year,” which is also inline with what Powell said. He also said that he sees predominantly upside risks to inflation.
Keep all that in mind when he speaks at 6 pm ET and the market is pricing in 80 bps in cuts this year with a 78% chance of a cut in June.