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US March non-farm payrolls +303K vs +200K expected

돈되는 정보

  • Prior +275K (revised to +270K)
  • Two-month net revision +22K vs -167K prior
  • Unemployment rate 3.8% vs 3.9% expected
  • Prior unemployment rate 3.9%
  • Participation rate 62.7% vs 62.5% prior
  • U6 underemployment rate 7.3% vs 7.3% prior
  • Average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m vs +0.3% expected (unrounded +0.347%)
  • Prior avg hourly earnings +0.1% m/m (revised to +0.2%)
  • Average hourly earnings +4.1% y/y vs +4.1% expected
  • Average weekly hours 34.4 vs 34.3 expected
  • Change in private payrolls 232K vs +160K expected
  • Change in manufacturing payrolls 0K vs +5K expected
  • Household survey +498K vs +63K prior
  • Birth-death adjustment K

The wage numbers are hotter than they look. The prior was revised higher and the rounded number was very close to +0.4%. Moreover, the numbers all would have been higher if not for the uptick in weekly hours.

US nonfarm payrolls

On the downside, government jobs rose a whopping 71K and the prior was revised to +63K from +52K. The leisure and hospitality sector was another big driver, which aren’t exactly high-paying jobs.

On net though, you have to take this one at face value and Treasury yields are rising 4-5 bps on this across the curve. The US dollar is up 20-30 pips as well.

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