Are we finally past peak fear with regards to the whole Israel-Iran episode? It still depends but this weekend was a decent start. I mean, the status quo in the region has definitely changed from before and we’re in a new geopolitical regime now. But as Iran downplays any immediate escalation, perhaps markets can learn to adapt quicker and breathe easier – at least for now.
Risk is holding out some optimism early on in broader markets. Gold is down 0.8% to $2,370 while oil is also down 0.6% to $81.55 currently. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% while the aussie and kiwi are holding light gains in the major currencies space. It’s still relatively early in the week to be calling anything but for now, calmer heads are observed.
If anything else, US stocks will be one to watch in the days ahead. The last time the S&P 500 closed lower in six consecutive sessions was back in September 2022. The day after, it rebounded by nearly 2%. The chart also shows that we might be close to a key threshold where buyers might make a stand. The 100-day moving average (red line) is drawing closer by the day:
S&P 500 index daily chart