USD/JPY 1 hour
The US dollar is higher across the board following a better-than-expected reading on GDP and in-line initial jobless claims numbers. The growth figures highlight an economy that’s just fine. In particular, the consumer spending number was +2.9% compared to the +2.0% reading expected.
With these numbers, I find it hard to believe the Fed will cut by 50 bps in September, even if non-farm payrolls are weak. Pricing has fallen to a 32% chance from 36% yesterday.
Much of this latest move is centered in USD/JPY, which is up 100 pips in the aftermath of the data. Other pair have moved around 20 pips. That suggests that economic data isn’t the whole story and that month-end flows might be a significant driver following one of the most-volatile months in USD/JPY ever.