The GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCHF opened the new day – and final -day of the week – between the 100 hour MAs and the 200 hour MAs and stayed within those boundaries for the fisrt 7 or so hours of the new trading day. Technically, that is about as neutral as you can get.
As the day progresses, however, traders will be watching for a break and momentum. German retail sales and GDP along with EU CPI Flash could give the major pairs a shove.
Later, US Core PCE and University of Michigan consumer sentiment will potentially provide some USD fireworks.The core PCE is a faovred inflation measure of the Fed. The Fed is set to start the easing cycle with eyes on economic data between now and the September meeting as potential catalysts for a 50 bp cut. Core PCE and the US jobs report next Friday are two economic releases that will be earmarked as important between now and then.
Nevertheless, be aware that it is the end of week which will lead into the final US and Canada summer holday (Labor Day). So things can quiet down quickly.
How is the greenback doing this week going into the final hours?
- EUR +1.02%
- JPY +0.31%
- GBP +0.33%
- CHF +0.05%
- CAD -0.13%
- AUD, -0.16%
- NZD -0.67%
The USD is mixed with a gain of 1.0% vs the EUR and a -0.67% decline vs the NZD. Recall from yesterday, the ANZ Business confidence surged to 50.2 – the highest level in 10 years.
The EURUSDs decline seemed more of a function of some technical breaks after the pair hit a nice round natural resistance target at 1.1200 on Friday last week, and again on Monday. Getting below the 100 hour MA and the 200 hour MA and then a swing level nare 1.1097 (call int 1.1100) were key breakss. Unlike the GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF, the EURUSD did break below and through its 100 and 200 hour MAs this week (at 1.1140 and 1.1132 respectively).
Ironically (or not), the NZD – which is the strongest currency vs the USD this week – is the strongest of the major currencies today, and the EUR , which is the weakest currency vs the USD this week, is the weakest of the major currencies today. So the story for the week, continues today.
In other markets today:
- Crude oil is trading up $0.10. Prices are up 1.59% this week
- Gold is trading down eight dollars or -0.32% at $2512.49. Gold prices are near unchanged
- Btcoin is down around $300 at $59,073. Bitcoin is down over a%
- US treasury yields are unchanged to one basis point on the curve. The US two year yield is down -2.2 basis points, while the 10 year yield is up 6.2 basis points
- US e-mini S&P up 0.15%
Asian-Pacific stocks are higher:
- Japan’s Nikkei 225 of 0.55%. For the week the Nikkei is up 0.54%.
- China’s Shanghai composite index up 1.34%. For the week the index is up 0.23%.
- Hong Kongs Hang Seng index up 1.76%. For the week the index is up 2.77%.
- Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index, up 0.43%. For the week index is up 0.70%
Looking at the major US indices for the trading week, the Dow is on pace for a positive result for the week while the S&P and NASDAQ are currently lower:
- Dow industrial average closed at a record level yesterday, is up 0.39%
- S&P index is down -0.76%
- NASDAQ index is the worst performer with a decline of -2.02%
In the European equity markets going into the last day of trading for the week, there major indices are higher:
- German DAX, +1.5%
- France’s CAC, +0.84%
- UK’s FTSE 100 +0.62%
- Spain’s Ibex +0.71%
- Italy’s FTSE MIB +1.61%
Wishing you all good fortune in your trading and a happy and healthy weekend.