ISM manufacturing
US markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day but will come to life on Tuesday including some notable economic data. The highlight is the 10 am ET release of the August ISM manufacturing index.
In July, the survey disappointed with a fall to 46.8 compared to 48.8 expected. This month, economists expect a rebound to 47.5 but that’s still in contractionary territory and at the bottom of the range since 2023.
Some highlights of the July report:
- Employment 43.4 versus 49.3 previous
- New orders 47.4 versus 49.3 previous
- Inventories 44.5 versus 45.4 previous
Those numbers are particularly notable to Bank of America, who write: “The ratio of new orders-to-inventories is the best 3-month leading indicator for ISM manufacturing PMI, and history suggests ISM at 52 by Oct’24 (the number will be released Nov 1st).”
Now that’s still a couple months away but if it unfolds, they suggest that the biggest upside trades if ISM is up will be China, commodities, and Korean/EM stocks.