Welcome to the main event of the week.
The non-farm payrolls report for August is due at the bottom of the hour and Canada will be releasing its jobs report at the same time. The market is pricing in a 43% chance of a 50 bps cut from the Fed this month and that will swing based on the data.
I believe that it will take a rise to 4.4% from 4.3% rather than the 4.2% expected to trigger the Fed to move.
Equally important: Note that the Fed’s Williams speaks at 8:45 am ET and Waller at 10 am ET. Those are the two last scheduled appearances ahead of the blackout at midnight and could tee up a larger move (or not).
Also note that there are reasons why August non-farm payrolls frequently disappoint.